What time will we know the General Election 2019 results in Wales?

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The General Election is taking place on December 12.

There are 650 seats in the House of Commons and officially it takes  326 seats for an overall majority  in the House of Commons.

At the close of the last Parliament, Boris Johnson had 298 seats.

Labour had 243, the SNP had 35, there were 23 independents, 21 Lib Dems, 10 members of the DUP, 7 Sinn Fein MPs, 5 from the Independent Group for Change, four from Plaid Cymru, one Green Party and two vacant. There was also the speaker.

The first constituency predicted to declare in Wales is Swansea West , historically a safe Labour seat.

PA uses forecasts obtained from councils. If the councils haven’t done so, they look at results from other years, we’ve listed all the Welsh constituencies as a guide to when they could declare.

Here’s your rough guide to election night:

10pm

The exit poll will be released, which will give the first idea of how the night could go.

Exit polls are used to predict the results of elections with varying levels of accuracy.

In 2010, the exit poll correctly indicated a hung parliament.

Five years later, it did not predict a Conservative majority. In 217, the exit poll was right that Theresa May’s gamble had not paid off and no party was set to achieve a majority.

They are always a talking point for commentators for at least an hour, as the first declarations are awaited.

11pm



In 2015 Labour’s Bridget Phillipson was the first elected MP of the General Election for Houghton and Sunderland South

The annual battle of trying to be the first count to declare continues. Expect either Houghton and Sunderland South or Newcastle Upon Tyne Central to declare first at around 11pm.

Swansea West predicted to be the first result

The first Welsh result could come around 1.30am, that’s predicted to be Swansea West, a historically safe Labour seat last held by Geraint Davies.

2am: A host of Welsh results are due

The results are due to start coming thick and fast from 2am onwards. The following Welsh constituencies are predicted to declare around this time:

  • Aberavon
  • Arfon
  • Blaenau Gwent
  • Caerphilly
  • Clwyd South
  • Dwyfor Meirionnydd
  • Islwyn
  • Llanelli
  • Newport East
  • Newport West
  • Pontypridd
  • Swansea East
  • Torfaen
  • Vale of Glamorgan
  • Wrexham

Wrexham is definitely one to watch, as polls have projected that could go Conservative for the first time since 1925. The Vale of Glamorgan will have big interest too to see if Alun Cairns keeps his seat.

One expert has predicted that if Clwyd South goes to the Tories, Boris Johnson will be returning to Downing Street.

Arfon was decided by just 92 votes last election.

2.30am: Watch out for Gower



Tonia Antoniazzi speaks after winning the Gower seat, at Brangwyn Hall in Swansea in 2017

Two Welsh constituencies could report back around now and one is the Gower seat which is historically very interesting.

All eyes on Brecon and Radnorshire from 3am



Jane Dodds arrives at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election count in August 2019

Two of the Cardiff seats, including the marginal of Cardiff North , are due back around 3am. Brecon and Radnorshire is expected to be close. Jane Dodds took the seat for the Lib Dems in an August by-election but with a new candidates, the Conservatives are hopeful of regaining it.

  • Alyn and Deeside
  • Brecon and Radnorshire
  • Bridgend
  • Cardiff Central
  • Cardiff North
  • Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
  • Cynon Valley
  • Delyn
  • Montgomeryshire
  • Ogmore
  • Rhondda
  • Vale of Clwyd
  • Ynys Mon

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s constituency of Islington North is expected around now, as is Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson’s Dunbartonshire East seat.

Will Labour turned Independent Group turned Lib Dem hopeful Chukka Umunna be published for party hopping or be named MP for Cities of London and Westminster? That result is expected now.

Can the Conservatives keep Aberconwy?



Jeremy Corbyn with Labour Aberconwy hopeful Emily Owen as part of her 2019 campaign

Two further Welsh results expected around 3.30am including Aberconwy where Guto Bebb was previously MP. He was elected as a Conservative but quit the party as one of the 21 Tory rebels. He then announced he would not stand again.

4am



Mark Williams wants to be re-elected for the Lib Dems

Ceredigion , which could be a really interesting seat, is due back around now. Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake wants to be re-elected as does Mark Williams, the Lib Dem who had the title of MP for the constituency before him. As a warning, this seat has previously gone to a recount.

  • Cardiff South and Penarth
  • Cardiff West
  • Ceredigion
  • Merthyr Tydfil
  • Monmouth

4.30am

Two Welsh constituencies are due at this time including the close seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire , where Stephen Crabb has most recently been MP. Carmarthen West is a seat last held by a Conservative MP, Simon Hart wants to be re-elected again.

  • Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
  • Preseli Pembrokeshire

The Prime Minister’s Uxbridge and Ruislip South is also predicted to be around 4.30pm.

5am onwards



Anna Soubry is one of the former Conservative MPs who could be punished at the ballot box

We’ll be far from done but by the time you’re waking up (or reaching for the coffee) the national picture will be looking a lot clearer.

It could be another hung Parliament, or Boris Johnson could have proved his critics wrong and got a straight Tory majority.

Don’t forget, Conservative seats often declare late, so if you look at the results at 3am and pop back to bed you may see one national picture, but that can all change as the Tory seats declare.

Broxtowe is a seat to watch around now. Anna Soubry, the ex-Conservative MP, now an Independent is running here.

The last results predicted to be called by PA are Cornwall South East and Cornwall North , both of which have flipped between the Lib Dems and Tories in recent years. The results there are expected at 10am on Friday.

How the next Parliament looks may be clear by the time you wake up on Friday, or it could take days to negotiate a coalition, as it did in 2010.

In this election, anything could happen.



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