US election 2020: can we rely on the polls? – podcast | Information


The election of Donald Trump in 2016 arrived as a hammer-blow not just for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic celebration but also for the opinion polling sector. When they experienced appropriately predicted her greater part in the preferred vote, they experienced catastrophically missed the greater tale: Trump experienced gained in the critical swing states to clinch the presidency by means of the electoral school.

The Guardian’s US facts editor, Mona Chalabi, tells Anushka Asthana that adhering to 2016, the pollsters tweaked their styles as they ate humble pie, but this 12 months they are again to projecting the results with related self-confidence: and when again they are predicting a defeat for Donald Trump. But have all those developments they missed in 2016 been thoroughly accounted for? And should pieces of the media be considerably more sceptical than they at present are about the scientific-sounding statements of the important polling sites?

Trail Picture for Poll tracker US Election 2020

Composite: Frank Hulley-Jones

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