Wales has a higher R rate than England according to the latest data. The last two weeks have seen an huge spike in the figure as Wales sees progress made by the fire-break lockdown melt away.
The latest published data from the Welsh Government’s Technical Advisory Cell, released on November 19, estimates the R rate in Wales to be between 0.8 and one, and expressed “confidence” that the figure was below one.
However, last Friday First Minister Mark Drakeford said the R number was back up to 1.4, meaning the virus is growing fast and exponentially in Wales.
Across the border in England the R rate is where Wales was just a fortnight before, between 0.9 and one, reflecting the impact the month-long lockdown has had.
Over the summer it was very hard for experts and modellers to come up with an exact R number because there was so little of the virus in circulation.
However, it has now reached the point where the virus is so widespread that experts are able to say with more certainty what it is in Wales.
The R number represents the amount of people each person with Covid-19 is infecting with the virus.
If it goes above one the number of people becoming infected with the virus will grow exponentially but for as long as it remains below one the number of people infected with the virus will continue to fall.
Even if the R rate is falling any figure above one means cases of the virus are on the rise.
Find out how many cases are in your area:
What about other parts of the UK?
The Department of Health in England publishes the R number for every region once a week.
- East of England – 0.9-1.1 (fall)
- London – 1 to 1.1 (fall)
- Midlands – 0.9-1.1 (fall)
- North east and Yorkshire – 0.8-1 (fall)
- North west – 0.7 to 0.9 (fall)
- South east – 1 to 1.2 (fall)
- South west – 0.9 to 1.1 (fall)
Scotland has a current range of between 0.8 and 1 which is down from the previous figure of between 0.8 and 1.1.