A huge poll projecting possible results in Thursday’s General Election has projected two seats in Wales will change hands.
YouGov has carried out a full seat-by-seat analysis.
The pollsters had already released one poll, of 100,000 people, which projected a 68-seat majority for the Conservatives.
The latest analysis, carried out via MRP, says the following seats will change:
- Wrexham – Conservative gain by 1%
- Vale of Clwyd both Labour and Conservatives with 44% but projected as a Conservative gain
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, warned “with the lead in a quarter of Welsh seats at five points or lower and election day two days away, there is still time for things to change in Wales.”
YouGov’s polling released on December 10, two days before the election, says that if the election were held now the Tories could win 339 seats, 22 more than they took in 2017, and a vote share of 43%.
In terms of seats, this would be the Conservative’s best performance since 1987.
Meanwhile, Labour is set to lose 31 seats – falling from 262 in 2017 to 231 – and take 34% of the vote, a six percentage point decrease. In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983.
The margin of error could put the final number of Conservative seats from 311 to 367 which does not rule out a hung Parliament or a larger Conservative majority.
The idea behind MRP is that poll data from the preceding seven days is used to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.
This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party.
Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Most of the seats changing hands are ones Labour won in 2017, passing back to Tory control.
What happens in these constituencies is key to deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority and how large it may be.
Since the last modelling, Labour has pulled back many of these seats.
In November they were set to lose 44 to the Conservatives but this has now dropped to just 29.
YouGov say it is a much later rise for Labour. In 2017, they started to close the gap a few weeks out from the election, and then stayed steady for the final week, this time it does seem like the gap is closing very late in the campaign.
Mr Curtis said: ” Our latest and final poll shows that a small Conservative majority is likely, with the Tories taking 22 more seats than in 2017 and Labour losing 31. This would be the best and worst results respectively for each party since the 80s.
” But the margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.
“As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of 5% or less.
“Labour are set for losses in Wales but remain the dominant party in the country, keeping hold of all their South Wales seats.
“The picture is less positive for the party in North Wales where they are currently losing two of the six seats they hold in the region to the Conservatives.
“A significant loss would be Wrexham, a seat Labour has won at every election since 1922.
“Ynys Mon looks to be a three-way battle between Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, with only five points separating the parties.
“With the lead in a quarter of Welsh seats at five points or lower and election day two days away, there is still time for things to change in Wales.”
On Monday, the latest Welsh polling was released. That projected the Conservatives could take eight Labour seats in Wales.
That means the following would all stay the same as after the 2017 election:
- Aberavon (Labour)
- Aberconwy (Conservative – Guto Bebb became an independent by the end of the last Parliament)
- Alyn and Deeside (Labour)
- Arfon (Plaid Cymru)
- Blaenau Gwent (Labour)
- Brecon and Radnorshire (Conservatives – although the Lib Dems did take the seat in the August 2019 by-election)
- Bridgend (Labour)
- Caerphilly (Labour)
- Cardiff Central (Labour)
- Cardiff North (Labour)
- Cardiff South and Penarth (Labour)
- Cardiff West (Labour)
- Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Plaid Cymru)
- Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (Labour)
- Ceredigion (Plaid Cymru)
- Clwyd South (Labour)
- Clwyd West (Conservative)
- Cynon Valley (Labour)
- Delyn (Labour/Conservative both on 44%)
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Plaid Cymru)
- Gower (Labour)
- Islwyn (Labour)
- Llanelli (Labour)
- Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (Labour)
- Monmouth (Conservative)
- Montgomeryshire (Conservative)
- Neath (Labour)
- Newport East (Labour)
- Newport West (Labour)
- Ogmore (Labour)
- Pontypridd (Labour)
- Preseli Pembrokeshire (Conservative)
- Rhondda (Labour)
- Swansea East (Labour)
- Swansea West (Labour)
- Torfaen (Labour)
- Vale of Glamorgan (Conservative)
- Ynys Mon (Labour)